Context
UK–EU cooperation programme updated
The Common Understanding was updated with work on energy cooperation. It deepens cooperation within the existing post-Brexit framework rather than opening an accession process.
UK Government ↗United Kingdom · Latest verified voting-intention poll
52% Rejoin
Rejoin 52%
Stay Out 27%
Other / unsure
YouGov, fieldwork 4 October–5 October 2026 · 2,312 GB adults · Online
“If an election were held tomorrow for Britain to rejoin the European Union (EU), how would you vote?”View original tables ↗
Rejoin Momentum
52.5/100
An indicator combining polling, trend, party positions and political developments. It is not a forecast.
How 52.5 is calculated →Public opinion
Rejoin vs Stay Out
Verified, equivalent voting-intention questions only
View chart data as a table
| Date | Pollster | Rejoin | Stay Out |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-31 | NatCen | 47% | 39% |
| 2021-01-31 | NatCen | 46% | 41% |
| 2023-07-14 | YouGov | 51% | 32% |
| 2023-08-09 | YouGov | 50% | 30% |
| 2025-02-06 | YouGov | 48% | 32% |
| 2025-03-14 | YouGov | 49% | 31% |
| 2025-07-16 | YouGov | 51% | 30% |
| 2026-01-16 | YouGov | 49% | 31% |
| 2026-03-13 | YouGov | 53% | 28% |
| 2026-05-20 | YouGov | 51% | 31% |
| 2026-10-05 | YouGov | 52% | 27% |
Sparse periods reflect a lack of source-verified equivalent questions in the bundled dataset—not an estimate. Support/oppose questions are kept separate.
Past month
—
Not enough equivalent polls
Past six months
+0.2
percentage points
Past year
+1.0
percentage points
Calculated trend
Rejoin leads across the recent verified series, while the short-term direction remains uncertain.
The chart now contains eleven source-verified, equivalent voting-intention results. Only one falls inside the current 90-day average, so Breenter shows longer-term context but does not treat the latest movement as a settled short-term trend.
Evidence
Latest polls
| Fieldwork | Pollster | Rejoin | Stay Out | Don’t know | Sample | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2026 | YouGov Voting intention | 52% | 27% | 15% | 2,312 | Verified |
| 25 Sept 2026 | YouGov Support / oppose | 59% | 32% | 9% | Not reported | Review |
| 3 Jun 2026 | YouGov Support / oppose | 55% | 34% | 10% | 2,114 | Verified |
| 20 May 2026 | YouGov Voting intention | 51% | 31% | 10% | 2,095 | Verified |
| 13 Mar 2026 | YouGov Voting intention | 53% | 28% | 11% | 2,102 | Verified |
Political context
Recent developments
Positive signal
UK and EU hold first post-withdrawal summit
Leaders agreed a new strategic partnership and a common understanding covering security, trade and people-to-people links. The documents do not propose UK membership.
Council of the EU ↗Context
Trade and Cooperation Agreement enters into force
The agreement established the main framework for the relationship after withdrawal. It is a cooperation agreement, not a route to EU membership.
Council of the EU ↗Negative signal
UK leaves the EU
The UK ceased to be an EU member state after the Withdrawal Agreement entered into force.
Council of the EU ↗In brief
How the headline is built
The polling average uses verified, substantially equivalent polls from the most recent 90 days. It weights by recency and capped sample size, and reports Rejoin, Stay Out and Don’t Know separately.
Read the full methodology →Daily updater: ready, but waiting for a database and approved polling feed.